It might seem like a stretch to connect ocean temperatures in the Pacific to the price of your dog’s kibble or your cat’s favourite treat, but that’s exactly the link forming right now. According to NOAA, a strong El Niño weather pattern currently carries more than a 90% probability of persisting through the winter of 2026-2027, with a striking 69% chance of exceeding historical climate records.
For the pet food industry, that’s not just a meteorological footnote. El Niño doesn’t create a single, uniform global grain shortage. Instead, it produces regional imbalances, droughts in some parts of the world, flooding in others, that ripple through agricultural logistics, ingredient pricing, and sourcing strategies. For an industry that depends heavily on plant-based ingredients like corn, soy, rice, wheat, and canola, that ripple effect is significant enough to watch closely.
Corn and Soybeans: A Moderate but Uneven Squeeze
Corn and soybeans, two of the most widely used plant-based ingredients in pet food formulations, are facing a mixed picture under current El Niño conditions.
On the corn side, large yields are expected out of the United States this season, which should offer some cushioning. However, lowered ending stocks could still push prices upward even with a strong harvest. Meanwhile, South American corn crops may actually benefit from El Niño-driven rainfall patterns, while India and Southeast Asia face heightened drought risk that could constrain regional corn availability.
Soybeans have historically proven more resilient during El Niño events, with global yields often rising by anywhere from 2.1% to 5.4% during these weather cycles. A high U.S. soybean supply is expected to support the market this season as well. The one meaningful risk lies in northern Brazil, where river transport, a critical logistics channel for moving soybeans to export markets, could face disruption, potentially adding friction to global supply chains even if raw yields hold up well.
Rice: The Ingredient Facing the Sharpest Risk
If there’s one plant-based staple pet food manufacturers should be watching most closely, it’s rice. Rainfed rice production across Southeast Asia and India faces real drought vulnerability under the current El Niño pattern, a concern given how central rice is to pet food formulations that rely on easily digestible carbohydrate sources.
India’s strong existing rice reserves offer some near-term stability, but that cushion comes with a caveat. If domestic conditions tighten further, the risk of government-imposed export restrictions rises meaningfully, and history has shown that such restrictions can trigger sharp global price spikes almost overnight. For pet food manufacturers relying on rice as a core ingredient, that’s a supply risk worth building contingency plans around now, rather than after restrictions are announced.
Wheat, Barley, and Sorghum: Australia Bears the Brunt
Regional strain is most visible in Australia’s grain output this cycle. Australian wheat production is projected to drop by as much as 26%, with barley production falling by around 15%, both driven by persistently dry weather conditions tied to the current El Niño pattern.
That said, the picture isn’t entirely bleak for pet food formulators looking for alternatives. Barley and drought-tolerant sorghum are both being positioned as potential cost-effective substitute grains within pet food formulations. The catch is that Australia’s own limited yield of these crops caps how much economic advantage manufacturers can actually capture from leaning on them as alternatives, since reduced Australian output limits the very supply that would make the substitution cost-effective at scale.
Pulses and Canola: A Genuinely Mixed Bag
Few ingredient categories illustrate El Niño’s uneven impact better than pulses and canola.
Chickpeas are facing a sharp hit, with Australian yield projected to fall by a striking 51%, a dramatic reduction that will likely tighten global chickpea availability for pet food formulations that use it as a protein or fibre source. Lentils, by contrast, are moving in the opposite direction entirely, with Australian lentil output reaching record highs, up roughly 3%, offering a genuine bright spot within an otherwise strained pulse category.
Canola tells its own cautionary story. Australian canola output is projected to decline by around 20%, a reduction that directly affects the availability of canola oil and canola meal, both commonly used ingredients in plant-based pet food formulations for fat and protein content respectively.
Palm Oil: A Crunch That’s Coming, Just Not Yet
Not every consequence of the current El Niño pattern will show up immediately. Palm oil production is particularly notable for its delayed sensitivity to extreme heat and drought, with effects typically taking 12 to 16 months to fully materialise in yield data.
That means the real market crunch for palm oil, an ingredient used across various pet food and treat formulations, likely won’t hit until 2027-2028, well after the current El Niño event itself has passed its peak. For manufacturers planning ingredient sourcing strategies over the next two to three years, that lag is worth factoring into longer-term procurement planning now, rather than waiting for price pressure to become visible in the market.
What This Means for Pet Food Manufacturers and Pet Parents
Taken together, these regional shifts point toward a pet food industry that will likely need to diversify sourcing more aggressively over the coming months, rather than relying on any single region or ingredient supply chain. Manufacturers that can pivot between substitute grains, diversify geographic sourcing for staples like corn and soy, and plan ahead for delayed-impact ingredients like palm oil will be better positioned to manage cost volatility without passing steep, sudden price increases directly onto pet parents.
For pet owners, the practical takeaway is more about awareness than immediate alarm. Ingredient availability and pricing pressures tend to move through supply chains gradually, but a strong, potentially record-breaking El Niño event is exactly the kind of climate signal that tends to eventually show up on pet food packaging, whether through ingredient substitutions, formulation adjustments, or price changes further down the line. Keeping an eye on how manufacturers respond over the next several quarters will offer an early read on how significant that impact ultimately becomes.
Pets News Network is India’s first dedicated media platform for the pet and animal industry. For breaking global pet news, brand coverage, and advertising enquiries, contact: ankur@petsnewsnetwork.com
